2024 Election Forecast: It's Neck and Neck!
Trump and Biden Battle for Electoral Votes
Map Tracks Probabilities as Race Tightens
The race for the 2024 presidency is heating up, and it's shaping up to be a close one. Our interactive map allows you to create your own forecast by clicking on states. The colored gradients indicate the likelihood of victory for either Trump or Biden, deepening as the market probability increases.
Trump's Edge
As of June 2nd, our model gives Trump a 56% chance of winning. This is based on an analysis of recent polls, taking into account their sample size, methodology, and recency. Trump's strong support in key battleground states like Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania is giving him the edge at this point.
Biden's Path to Victory
However, Biden still has a path to victory. He needs to win back some of the states he lost in 2020, like Wisconsin and Michigan. He's also hoping for a strong turnout from Democratic voters, particularly in urban areas.
The Race is Far from Over
With over two years to go until the election, there's still plenty of time for the race to change. Stay tuned to our map as we update it regularly with the latest polling data.
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